Cumulative cash position
36-month horizon · LTV-inclusive
The curve dips as you invest ahead of return, then crosses zero at payback. The trough is the working capital the business needs to survive.
Total ad spend
$5.1M
36-mo cumulative
Total agency fee
$450K
$12,500/mo × 36
Blended LTV : CAC
0.71 : 1
Across all buyers · the north star
Subscriber value
$220
Stays 6.7 mo · blended $100/customer
The one-line story for the partners
Invest $5.5M over three years, absorbing a peak cash trough of $2.8M. At these inputs it does not pay back inside 36 months, and if the plan holds you own a $7.0M annual run-rate business.
WHY LTV:CAC AND CAC PAYBACK MATTER
You pay to acquire a customer once, but they generate revenue over their full subscription life. LTV shows whether that customer is profitable, and CAC payback shows how quickly you recover the upfront cost, which is the only honest way to judge a subscription business that may look like it is losing money on any single month’s P&L.
Reading the model. Every acquired customer makes one purchase. Only the attach-rate share subscribes and generates repeat revenue, churning off the retention curve over time; the rest buy once and exit. So blended LTV sits well below a pure subscriber's value, and the attach rate is one of the highest-leverage levers here — it's what lifecycle work directly moves. The cash curve is contribution margin (CM2) minus ad spend, agency fee, and fixed costs; breakeven is where cumulative cash crosses zero. AOV, churn, and CM2 default to the current sheet ($32 / 15% / 35.5%); attach defaults to 35% pending real Shopify opt-in data. All are modeled assumptions to pressure-test, not measured facts. Excludes product COGS financing and inventory working capital.